National Market Perspective – September 2026
The national market closed summer split in two. Existing-home sales eased to a 4.06 million annual pace in July—still slightly ahead of last year. The median price rose to $434,100, the 37th consecutive month of annual gains. Inventory sits at 4.6 months of supply. That is “balanced” on a national spreadsheet. It is not the market your clients occupy.
Mortgage rates remain the governor. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.66% in late August. Heading into the September 16 Fed meeting, futures indicate the odds of a hike essentially at zero as the base case, though lingering inflation keeps markets reactive. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 23,000, signaling a late-summer cooling in corporate hiring velocity. That matters for volume. It matters far less at the top of the market.
The wealth effect is doing the work luxury buyers feel. Pending sales in the top 25% of listings are running about 13% ahead of a year ago; the lowest-priced quartile is down about 5%. Homeowner balance sheets remain strong—almost no distressed inventory is coming. Cash and low-leverage capital continue to set the pace.
Long Island, Nassau Luxury & the Hamptons
Scarcity is still the local story. Combined Nassau–Suffolk single-family inventory was near 5,400 homes in July, down about 7% year-over-year. Nassau’s median reached $880,000. Suffolk matched its record at $750,000. Homes in both counties continue to trade at or above asking.
Those county medians understate the market that matters here. Long Island’s luxury tier—the top 10% of sales—now begins near $1.46 million. In the second quarter the luxury median was about $1.85 million and the average about $2.31 million, rising faster than the broader market. First-half sales above $2 million were up nearly 13%. The activity is concentrated where it always is: Manhasset, Great Neck, Sands Point, Locust Valley, Mill Neck, and Centre Island. Unique waterfront and estate inventory cannot be replicated. Well-presented, correctly priced homes still move. Ambiguous pricing does not.
On the East End, lower volume is a listing problem, not a demand problem. South Fork second-quarter medians printed in the mid-$2 millions, with averages near $3.8–$3.9 million. Closings were among the slowest second quarters in a decade, yet $5 million-plus share stayed elevated and a $72 million East Hampton Village oceanfront sale reminded the market that trophy capital is still deploying. Luxury inventory was down sharply. Late-summer contract flow from Westhampton to Montauk remained active. This is not a buyer’s market. The missing ingredient—surplus inventory—never arrived.
Manhattan
More choice than at the tightest recent peaks. Not a retreat at $4 million-plus. August was seasonally quieter. The $5–15 million band continues to absorb quality against a thin new-development pipeline. Overpriced listings wait. Homes with clear value do not.
What to take from this
The national market is K-shaped. Your segment is the side that is still functioning.
On Long Island and the East End, supply—not rates—remains the binding constraint for true luxury.
Off-market access still matters more than another week of public browsing.
Pricing and presentation at launch separate a good outcome from a memorable one.
If you are selling Prime Nassau and Hamptons inventory is still scarce. Buyers who can close are in the market now. Launch correctly. Do not wait for a rate headline that may not change your buyer pool.
If you are buying Selection is slightly better than last summer. Bargains are not broadly appearing at the top. Defined criteria, certainty of close, and local intelligence still win.
If you are advising capital This is a positioning season, not a volume season. Review off-market inventory and stress-test list prices against the last 90 days of luxury comps before the fall comparison set changes.
We will be watching September inventory, the Fed meeting, and whether the fall listing wave actually materializes. That is the next tell.
