Market Intelligence & Private Wealth Analysis
November 2026
If you follow the national headlines, you’ll see a market that has cooled and grown more negotiable. Long Island has not followed the same path. As I look at the September closings and the late-October contract numbers, the split is still clear: a broader U.S. market where buyers have more leverage, and a North Shore–Hamptons market that remains inventory-bound.
National Market Perspective
Existing-home sales ticked up to a 3.99 million annual pace in September, up 1.5% from August but still 2.2% below a year ago. The median price was $417,500, a 1.3% gain and the 39th straight month of annual increase.s. Inventory sat at 1.60 million homes, or 4.8 months of supply. Those September closings mostly came from contracts written when rates were still in the mid-6s. The move above 7% is already showing up in weaker pending activity. As of October 29 the 30-year fixed averaged 7.24%, having eased a bit from the mid-month peak near 7.40%. The friction is still concentrated below the luxury tier. Strong balance sheets and very low delinquency rates continue to keep distressed supply off the market. At the top, cash and low-leverage capital are still setting the pace.
Long Island, Nassau Luxury & The Hamptons
Here at home, scarcity is still the story. Combined Nassau–Suffolk single-family inventory was about 5,540 homes in September, down 2.4% from last year, even though new listings fell more sharply. Months of supply remains near 3.3. That is not the national 4.8.
County medians came off the August records but are still higher than a year ago. Nassau’s single-family median was $860,000 (+2.1%), down from the $911,000 August peak. Suffolk’s was $740,000 (+2.8%), down from $760,000. Sellers received 99.8% of original ask in Nassau and 101.0% in Suffolk. Days on market held at 40 in both counties. Good inventory is still being absorbed.
County medians continue to understate what is happening at the high end. Excluding the East End, Long Island’s luxury entry point is still near $1.43 million, and the broader luxury median remains well above $1.9 million. First-half North Shore results make the point: Manhasset’s median reached $2.55 million, Sands Point $3.875 million, and Port Washington $1.4 million. Capital is still concentrated in these enclaves. Irreplaceable waterfront and estate properties continue to command premiums when we launch them correctly. Above roughly $2 million, pricing discipline matters more right now, homes that start too high tend to sit and then need adjustment.
The East End
On the South Fork, third-quarter results again showed that lower volume is largely a listing constraint. Single-family closings were flat year-over-year at 412, while the median rose 8% to a third-quarter record of $2.268 million and the average climbed 17% to $3.956 million. Luxury (top 10%) was stronger: the average reached $15.765 million (+29%) and the median $13.150 million (+22%), helped by nine sales at or above $20 million versus four a year earlier. A $59 million Wainscott oceanfront sale reminded everyone that trophy capital is still deploying.
East End inventory ended the quarter at 1,554 listings, down 28% from a year ago and the lowest third-quarter level on record. Late October contract flow from Westhampton to Montauk has been softer (around 20 a week), and active inventory has settled near 1,390. Buyers have a bit more choice than they did midsummer. It is not a surplus, and it is not a buyer’s market.
Manhattan
In the city I’m seeing selectivity, not a retreat, at $4 million-plus. The week of October 19–25 produced 36 contracts on homes asking $4 million or more, the highest in 20 weeks and matching the early-June peak. Eight of those were at $10 million-plus, including a penthouse at 255 East 77th Street asking $23.8 million. Properly positioned properties are still absorbing. Speculative, overpriced listings wait. The pied-à-terre tax has not derailed the segment. Most buyers are simply treating it as the cost of being in Manhattan.
My Strategic Takeaways
The national market has grown more negotiable. Our upper quartile remains insulated by scarcity and strong balance sheets.
Supply, not the latest rate headline is still the binding constraint on the North Shore and East End. At roughly 3.3 months of inventory, we are fundamentally tight.
The national wave of price reductions has not broadly appeared in prime Nassau or South Fork properties. Initial presentation and accurate pricing still decide whether a home trades cleanly or sits.
Off-market access continues to matter more than another week of public browsing.
Advisor Action Plan
If You Are Selling
Prime Nassau, North Shore, and South Fork inventory remains scarce. Buyers who can close are still in the market. I would not delay a well-positioned launch waiting for rate relief. A move from 7.4% to 7.2% does not meaningfully expand the buyer pool for unique estate or waterfront properties. Price and present it correctly at launch.
If You Are Buying
Selection on the East End is a little broader than midsummer, and nationally buyers have more leverage than they have had in years. Bargains are not broadly appearing at the top of Nassau or the South Fork. Defined criteria, certainty of close, and early off-market access still win.
If You Are Advising Capital
This is a positioning window, not a volume window. Stress-test target list prices against the last 90 days of luxury comps. When you underwrite leveraged acquisitions, use current rates (7%+). Distressed supply remains limited.
What I am watching next: October and early-November pending contracts across the North Shore, whether East End weekly contracts stabilize, and how Manhattan $4 million-plus absorption holds as we move deeper into Q4.
